Blog Entry

BCS/Bowl notes

Posted on: October 23, 2011 11:01 pm
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The official BCS is out this week, with no real surprises.

Oklahoma State would appear to be in the best position to play the SEC champ for the BCS title if both finish undefeated.  The Cowboys have a slight edge over Stanford in the polls, but a huge lead in the computers.  Stanford will close that gap some as the season goes on, assume neither loses, but the Cardinal will never catch OSU.

Boise State and Clemson are currently between Stanford and Oklahoma St, but if all four finish undefeated, Stanford should pass the Broncos and Tigers.

Oregon and Oklahoma are in the best spots for 1-loss teams.  That may very well include the loser of the LSU-Alabama game.

A lot of people are talking about a possible rematch of those two for the BCS title.  That is getting WAY ahead of yourself.  We still could have six undefeated teams.  This is the time of year to talk about that scenario.

But since you asked, voters showed us in 2006 that they prefer not to have a rematch.  They jumped Florida over Michigan after the Gators won the SEC title.  I think there is a sense that it isn't fair to make the winner beat the loser again.

However, there does have to be some reasonable alternative.  One-loss Oregon or Oklahoma would be that, as would undefeated Boise State or Clemson.

The bowl projections require a little explanation also.

The order for choosing at-large teams for the BCS bowls is Fiesta, Sugar and Orange.

Once you get past league champions, bowl selection order is about bowl choice, not conference standings.  So, the Capital One Bowl gets the Big Ten No. 2.  That does not mean the second best team in the conference standings, or the conference championship game loser.  It means second choice of all bowl-eligible teams.  Conference standings are rarely much of a factor, although some leagues do have rules requiring they be respected to some degree.

Michigan is projected to be the choice of the Fiesta Bowl as an at-large team, but the Wolverines are not projected to win their division.  That is Michigan State.  However, Michigan is MUCH more attractive to bowls because of its massive fan base, national appeal, and in this case, a bit of a dry spell from playing at this level.

The current bowl projection also has a couple of holes in it.  I am only projecting 68 teams to be eligible for 70 spots.  At this time, the NCAA has no provision for dealing with this situation, so I am not going to assume what they will do.  This kind of thing has a way of working itself out, so we'll see.

I did end up with one strange matchup - Ohio vs Eastern Michigan in the Idaho Potato Bowl.  EMU was the last team I put in the grid, and the only openings were against other MAC foes.  Ohio was the only one the Eagles don't play in the regular season.  I'm sure the fans in Boise would line up early to see that one!

Finally, BYU clinched the first bowl berth of the season with its win over Idaho State.  They are contracted to the Armed Forces Bowl, however I don't believe the bid has been officially offered yet because there are still some very slim hopes that the Cougars could end up in the BCS.
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Comments

Since: Jul 3, 2008
Posted on: October 26, 2011 6:19 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

For those of you that are having a hard time figuring this out about OSU, let's break this down really simply:

1. He has OSU ranked #1 based on their SOS.
2. He's projected Oklahoma will beat OSU.  OU goes to the Fiesta as the conference champ.
3. Stanford will finish undefeated and climb to #2 in the BCS.
4. The Pac 12 will fill an at-large spot with another Pac 12 team Oregon.
5. Boise State gets an at-large spot automatically if they're undefeated.
6. The Fiesta won't take an at large from the same conference



Since: Mar 15, 2008
Posted on: October 26, 2011 5:43 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

I am only projecting 68 teams to be eligible for 70 spots.  At this time, the NCAA has no provision for dealing with this situation

 im sure the crooks who run these bowls can find a couple 5-7 teams from the ACC or Big East with two wins over 1-AA teams and reward them with a bowl game.....then everyone who plays them next year can say they played a bowl team and pretend they play a tough schedule



Since: Oct 26, 2011
Posted on: October 26, 2011 4:35 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

I am a little confused by your projections.  Your bowl projections obviously assume that Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, okay that will all play out.  But now the confusion, I understand the CBS Poll is your projection and that poll has Oklahoma State number 1 and OU number 7.  So you poll says OSU is the better team and bowl projection says OU will beat OSU.  Me thinks that you contradict yourself!



Since: Oct 25, 2011
Posted on: October 25, 2011 4:12 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

No way Stanford should be rated that high.  They have only beaten 1 top 25 team (Washington #25).  All the other teams are bellow .500 and have a combined record of 20-30.  Talk about a weak schedule.  That's a joke having them in the championship game.



Since: Oct 24, 2011
Posted on: October 24, 2011 10:51 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

Jerry ...YOU are talkin' out of BOTH sides of your mouth ...you say quote 'Oklahoma State would appear to be in the best position to play the SEC champ for the BCS title if both finish undefeated.  The Cowboys have a slight edge over Stanford in the polls, but a huge lead in the computers.  Stanford will close that gap some as the season goes on, assume neither loses, but the Cardinal will never catch OSU.' End Quote.  So, if The Cardinal will never catch O-State then why when I look at your bowl predictions do you have Bama vs. Stanford ??????????  Which is it man???




Since: Jan 31, 2011
Posted on: October 24, 2011 8:07 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

the bcs is a joke.



Since: Dec 7, 2008
Posted on: October 24, 2011 7:31 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

look at his bowl picks and all the people saying things about it - he does not know anything about football and does not update his prdicticons - he is a joke to the community and they are laughing at him and his knowledge of nothing




Since: Mar 10, 2009
Posted on: October 24, 2011 7:24 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

#6 doesn't mean the 6th place team. and that holds true for any conference and not just the BE. Jerry isn't projecting Cincy to finish in 6th. What he is saying is that the bowls get to pick their teams and Cincy could be the 6th pick from the BE. That's all he's saying. Just like Pitt could be the 3rd selection from the BE. He isn't saying Pitt will finish 3rd. The bowls want to select teams based on matchups, geography, fan-base, etc, etc. That just the way it goes.



Since: Dec 7, 2008
Posted on: October 24, 2011 4:49 pm
 

BCS/Bowl notes

this guy does not update his information - for example - Cincinnati the #6 projected team from the big east ?? get real jerry update your stuff and stop being a joke




Since: Dec 1, 2010
Posted on: October 24, 2011 1:10 pm
 

JERRY PALM=PUTZ!!!

   His own computer has the pokes ranked AHEAD of lsu & 'bama (i dont necessarily agree with that) and he projects okie state to not even be in the bcs slate at all!!!!!   what a slap in the facemask.  he must be predicting two losses for osu the rest of the season.  Mr Palm (can also be used to describe your love life....) you are a putz.   DO NOT BE SO HYPOCRITICAL AS TO GET ON THE OSU BAND WAGON AT A LATER DATE.  when you inevitably have to put osu in the title game or fiesta bowl, just type "I AM A PUTZ" where the schools name goes!!!


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