Blog Entry

BCS projections, Nov. 5

Posted on: November 6, 2011 9:54 am
Edited on: November 6, 2011 6:42 pm
 
The Harris poll is out.  There are very few differences between the two polls.  Alabama is close enough to Stanford in the projection that if the Cardinal is not as good in the computers as I expect, they could actually be behind Alabama overall this week.  Not that it matters at all, long-term.

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Call off the alerts.  The National Guard can stand down.  Alabama is ahead of Boise State in the coaches poll and will be ahead in the BCS as well.  The projection has also been changed to reflect Alabama ahead of the Broncos in the Harris poll.  The caution not to overreact to this week is still in effect.

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Someone might want to alert the seismologists.  And perhaps the medical centers in the Southeast.  Because if the current BCS projections hold true, Alabama will slot behind Boise State into fifth place.  Come to think of it, the National Guard in that part of the country should probably be on stand-by also.

I caution you not to overreact to where Alabama ends up this week, good, bad or indifferent.  Voters may be inclined to rethink it later, even if the Tide keeps, um, rolling from here.

Of course, that plea will fall on deaf ears in the Southeast.  SEC fans will be absolutely apoplectic if the Tide drops behind the Broncos.  There is, of course, a chance they won't -- the projection is very close.  Voters have an interesting decision to make this week.

Any other year, or with a team from any other league other than the almighty SEC, Bama would drop to seventh in the polls, behind not just Boise St, but Oklahoma and Oregon also, even after a tightly played (if not especially well played) loss at home in OT to the No. 1 team.  You know if the name on the front of their jerseys said "Oklahoma State" and not "Alabama," that would be true.

While a No. 7 spot in the polls is in the range of possibilities, it isn't very likely.  A battle for 4th with Boise State is more likely, and if the Tide comes out on top, they will be ahead of the Broncos in the BCS as well.  Alabama will be the better computer team, so simply being close in the point totals to Boise Sate without being ahead would be good enough to keep the Tide in front of the Broncos in the BCS overall.  We'll know more when the coaches' poll comes out around Noon ET.

Looking long term, Oklahoma State should still control its own destiny for the title game, along with LSU, of course.  Stanford is on deck.

If both the Cowboys and Cardinal go down at some point, the debate gets very interesting.  I think if it comes to that (and don't let this week be a guide -- voters are not long-term thinkers), I would expect the voters to go with either Boise State or a one-loss Oklahoma ahead of an Alabama rematch.

It really gets interesting if the voters are left with a choice of only Alabama or Oregon, either of which would be rematches for LSU.  I think you'd have to like the Tide there.

Also, Georgia's good run of play continues to bolster Boise State.  Voters probably don't remember now that the Bronocs smacked the Bulldogs in the season opener, but if UGa wins out and plays LSU for the SEC title, how Georgia performs in that game could impact Boise State.

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The projected numbers currently include data through this week's game for Colley and Sagarin, and projected top 25 rankings for the other components.  The chart will get updated as data becomes available.





Comments

Since: Mar 13, 2007
Posted on: November 9, 2011 4:17 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

Best chance for Boise = Georgia runs the table, and beats LSU in the SEC Championship game, and either Stanford or OSU loses

Unfortunately, somebody will still try and find a way to screw them out of the NCG. Too bad :(

That's the BCS for you whether its right or wrong.  Not only do they need Georgia to beat LSU, but I think BOTH Stanford and OSU need to lose and Auburn would have to beat Bama for them to have a shot.  If all 4 of those things happen then I would think they'd be in but I just don't see Auburn winning (even if they're playing at home) and I really don't see Georgia even keeping it close against LSU much less beating them.



Since: Aug 1, 2009
Posted on: November 9, 2011 3:27 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

cool you guys are trying to justify for boise, they play ONE Team all year and you guys want to crown them as champs . weakest schedule of all top 10 teams



Since: Aug 1, 2009
Posted on: November 9, 2011 2:58 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

prediction -----OU vs LSU tittle for the big dance .



Since: Apr 6, 2009
Posted on: November 8, 2011 3:02 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

Just imagine if there was a 16-team playoff. Conference champ from each of the 11 conferences get an auto bid, and then the top 5 remaining at-large teams in the BCS standings. All seeds determined by the BCS standings.  <br /> <br />Here's what it looks like going into week 11: http://gatorsfirst.com/ind
ex.php
/florida-gators-sports-news/college

-football/wetzel-plan-playoff-race-

2011-week-11.html




Since: Jun 15, 2008
Posted on: November 7, 2011 9:25 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

pfs44 - I love how you still hold on to your claim about SEC's defense couldn't handle a great offense.  Last 5 national championsships - those lousy defensive minded SEC teams.  Interesting how so many are complaining about the low scoring game of LSU/Alabama.  Well they are 2 of the top 5 defenses in the country - HELLO!!!  I find it frankly amusing that when a OK. St. and Kansas St. run up and down the field, it's a GREAT game.  But when it's a game of defense, it's terrible etc.  Well LSU/Alabama were 16 and O coming into last Sat. night's game.  Their offenses were able to put up good #'s against "ok" defenses in their games this year so far.  So spare us with all this nonsense. 



Since: Jan 9, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2011 2:46 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

Do you have facts to back that up skreffy? What was the deal - LSU gets ALL revenue? If you can back it up, I'd love to listen to facts.



Since: Jan 9, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2011 2:43 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

Best chance for Boise = Georgia runs the table, and beats LSU in the SEC Championship game, and either Stanford or OSU loses

Unfortunately, somebody will still try and find a way to screw them out of the NCG. Too bad :(



Since: Mar 20, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2011 11:55 am
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

For the zillionth time maybe you cant control your conference games but you sure can schedule tougher opponents for your OOC ones.
You actually can't. Outside of the Oregons, nobody will play Boise because they don't want to risk a loss and they want it both ways with Boise. Last year, Nebraska offered to come to Boise if Boise would travel to Lincoln twice. In college football, it is standard practice that in a two-for-one deal, the school getting two gives the other school a nice paycheck. Not Nebraska. The Cornhuskers demanded Boise do it for no money. The Broncos asked for $1 million, a standard amount for a school of their caliber in such a deal. Nebraska said no, then cowardly turned around and handed $800,000 to Idaho, a school that had no chance to win in Lincoln.

Plus, under the current system, almost nobody wants to risk a loss. Michigan found that out when they renovated the Big House and offered a straight home-and-home to any BCS team because they wanted to bring a big opponent to play them in the first game since the renovation. That opponent became...Connecticut, because almost everyone ducked Michigan. Boise's trying to get games, but it's hard when nobody else will agree to play you
Odd.  Boise State has turned LSU down three times so far to play.  Facts are pesky things.



Since: Aug 21, 2006
Posted on: November 7, 2011 1:43 am
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

For the zillionth time maybe you cant control your conference games but you sure can schedule tougher opponents for your OOC ones.
You actually can't. Outside of the Oregons, nobody will play Boise because they don't want to risk a loss and they want it both ways with Boise. Last year, Nebraska offered to come to Boise if Boise would travel to Lincoln twice. In college football, it is standard practice that in a two-for-one deal, the school getting two gives the other school a nice paycheck. Not Nebraska. The Cornhuskers demanded Boise do it for no money. The Broncos asked for $1 million, a standard amount for a school of their caliber in such a deal. Nebraska said no, then cowardly turned around and handed $800,000 to Idaho, a school that had no chance to win in Lincoln.

Plus, under the current system, almost nobody wants to risk a loss. Michigan found that out when they renovated the Big House and offered a straight home-and-home to any BCS team because they wanted to bring a big opponent to play them in the first game since the renovation. That opponent became...Connecticut, because almost everyone ducked Michigan. Boise's trying to get games, but it's hard when nobody else will agree to play you.



Since: Aug 22, 2006
Posted on: November 6, 2011 11:20 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 5

cjamisonb, who exactly was the "big conference" invite extended to Boise state?
Funny how #14 Georgia, who is tied for first in the SEC east is all of a sudden nobody for the sake of argument against Boise but they DO factor into how "strong" the SOS is for SEC conference play.

Give me a freakin break.  THE SEC IS AFRAID TO PLAY BOISE!!!!  If I were LSU or Alabama, if you were so confident, why wouldnt you want to play Boise and embarrass them on national tv and send them back to Idaho?  The reason: They will be exposed and lose the great argument on whether or not Boise belongs.


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