Blog Entry

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Posted on: November 27, 2011 9:19 am
Edited on: November 27, 2011 4:57 pm
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There shouldn't be very much movement in this week's BCS standings

Arkansas fell to tenth in the coaches' poll and ninth in the Harris poll.  The Hogs will still be pretty high overall this week, but outside the top five.

Alabama's lead over No. 3 Virginia Tech is 120 points - or more than two points per voter.  That means the Hokies are more like the fourth-rated team than the third-rated team.  Stanford is only two points behind Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma St is another 44 points back of that.  It's hard to imagine voters voting one of those three teams up suddenly next week.

The bowl projections have been updated.  Michigan is still slotted in the Sugar Bowl, although the Wolverines will need to get into the top 14 to qualify.  They project 16th this week.  The projections assume losses by Georgia and Oklahoma, and they should also pass whichever team loses the Big Ten title game.

One thing that baffles me is the notion that we will have an LSU-Alabama rematch for the BCS title no matter what happens next week.  That's silly.  There is no justification for rematching those teams if Georgia wins the SEC.  If there is going to be a rematch at that point, it should be Georgia-LSU, not Alabama-LSU.  Alabama would have won nothing.  Not the division, not the league, nothing.  I realize that is true even if LSU wins the SEC, but it's a lot easier to make the case that the Tide is the second best team in the league (and country) if only one team was more successful than them in conference play.




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Category: NCAAF
Comments

Since: Dec 4, 2010
Posted on: November 27, 2011 11:50 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Michigan will NOT move ahead of Michigan St if Wisconsin beats the Spartans....and they will. UM lost to MSU and did not play UW.  A team that does not play this week should not be "awarded" a higher spot over a losing team in a CONFERENCE Championship game. Same for Oklahoma v OSU.



Since: Apr 13, 2009
Posted on: November 27, 2011 11:30 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

"...while arguments about strength of schedule are legitimate, there's only ONE team in the country (besides LSU) that hasn't lost a game, and that's Houston.  I know people are going to say that I'm just trying to make the road easier for an SEC team to win the NC, but it's tremendously hard to go 12-0 regardless of the schedule you play, and if you're the only team in the country that can claim that distinction, imo you deserve a shot at the title."


AGREED. 



Since: Nov 27, 2011
Posted on: November 27, 2011 9:10 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

I think you know the answer to your question.....the reason you ARE NOT going to get #1 vs #3 or #4 is because the BCS was designed to pair the TOP TWO TEAMS!  


You can't justly place OSU/VA Tech ahead of BAMA due to their body of work vs BAMA.  If you going to blame someone, blame the coaching staffs of OU and OSU for not preparing their teams to take care of business against non-ranked opponents.  No one that is venting to Dr Phil on here has yet to bring up this point. 


Also the later you lose in the season, you are pretty much done....this is not the NBA/MLB/NFL where you can back your way into the NC game.  The beauty of the BCS is that the regular season is your playoff and I like it that way, so you can't slip up after week 7 unless you have a "quality loss", which still makes it almost impossible to recover.  OU/OSU/Stanford unfortunately choked at the wrong time of the year and it's just the way it is, so people need to honor that first and foremost instead of trying to give reasons why BAMA shouldn't be #2, when you can't convince yourselves why OSU should.


If there were an argument they would be ranked ahead of the Tide in the AP or coaches poll.  Let it go people west of the Mississippi, sit back and let the SEC show you how it's done in approx 7 weeks for now, LOL!!!      
;   



Since: Nov 27, 2011
Posted on: November 27, 2011 8:51 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

There is no way that OSU gets the nod over BAMA, even if they beat OU.....if the coaches and experts thought OSU was better, they would have ranked them ahead of the tide in the AP and coaches poll.....


You can't hate on BAMA because they are in the same division as LSU, clearly they are the top two teams in the nation....BAMA lost in OT to LSU, without giving up a TD; they have the best defense statistically and realistically in the country PLUS they have arguably the Heisman trophy winner.

To reward OSU the #2 spot simply because they are a potential conference champion and not the 2nd best team is wrong in itself!!! What if VA Tech wins the ACC, can an argument be made that OSU if they win the Big 12 is more worthy than VA Tech ??? Everyone wants to bash the SEC because the defenses are more dominant then the offenses, but its the closest thing to watching pro football on Saturdays, yeah I said it!


The Big 12 is clearly watered down.  If I want to see flag football played with no defense game in and game out, I will go down to the local YMCA and play myself.  It's a league of inflated stats on offense and no defense.  


I am in favor of the top two teams playing for the title, regardless of conference.  Everyone needs to get over it, BAMA-LSU for all the glory with 6 straight for the SEC.     &
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Since: Oct 1, 2007
Posted on: November 27, 2011 6:30 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

"Why would anyone want to see #1 vs #3 or #4???"

One reason might be that they've already seen 1 vs. 2 and would like to see a different game. Anyone dying to see 1 play 2 can go find a copy of a game that took place on November 5th and watch it as many times as they like.



Since: Jul 11, 2010
Posted on: November 27, 2011 6:21 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

(Full disclosure here--I'm an SEC fan)

If things go according to plan (big "if", I'll admit), then LSU has to be in the title game. 

But Bama had their shot.  Although I'm of the opinion that they're probably the second best team in the nation (told you I'm an SEC fan), it's not that much different than the OSU-Michigan situation back in 2006.  Everyone thought that those two were the best teams in the land, and both not only got beat, but got absolutely destroyed in bowl games (Fla 41-14 over OSU, USC over Michigan 32-18).  To get a true national champion, you've got to give some of the other contenders a chance.  Of the one loss teams (assuming Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma) both Stanford and VaTech have been beaten at HOME and beaten SOUNDLY by an opponent (Oregon 53-20 and Clemson 23-3 respectively) while OSU lost in double overtime in an away game.  Admittedly, ISU isn't of the same caliber as Clemson or Oregon, and I certainly don't know what emotional effect (if any) the loss of two of the women's basketball coaches had on the football team, but OSU seems the logical choice to me......except.....

...while arguments about strength of schedule are legitimate, there's only ONE team in the country (besides LSU) that hasn't lost a game, and that's Houston.  I know people are going to say that I'm just trying to make the road easier for an SEC team to win the NC, but it's tremendously hard to go 12-0 regardless of the schedule you play, and if you're the only team in the country that can claim that distinction, imo you deserve a shot at the title.  You may NOT be the second best team in the country, but it's not about which team is better on paper--it's about which team produces results, and the results are clear:  12 wins, NO losses and they did it in convincing style.

People argue that rewarding Houston would lead to teams filling their schedules with cupcakes, but first, that pretty much already happens with non-conference schedules, and second, if that is the consequence of rewarding Houston, then in the future there will be MANY undefeated teams to choose from for the NC and THEN strength of schedule arguments will begin to prevail and balance things out.  I just feel like if you get a bunch of kids together and they win every single time you send them out there AND THEY'RE ONE OF ONLY TWO TEAMS TO DO THAT, it's not credible to crown someone the NC without giving both undefeated teams a shot.




Since: Oct 29, 2009
Posted on: November 27, 2011 6:20 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

There are five teams that have one-loss this season. Oklahoma State lost to 28 point underdog and unranked Iowa State. Virginia Tech lost by 20 points at home to #21 Clemson. Boise State lost at home to #17 TCU. Stanford lost by 23 points at home to #7 Oregon (who lost to LSU). Alabama lost in over time at home to #1 ranked and unbeaten LSU. All five teams have similar strength of schedule ratings. Alabama lost by 3 points in OT to LSU.

Four teams lost at home to ranked opponents and one time lost on the road to an unranked opponent. Seriously, would you rather lose by 3 points in OT to the top ranked team, by 20 points to the #21 team, by 23 points to the #7 team, lose to the #17 team, or lose to an unranked 6-5 opponent?

If you're voters in the AP, Coach's, or Harris Poll the answer is lose to the #1 team by 3 points in OT. As a result, it will be LSU vs. Alabama in the BCS Championship. Deal with it (and no one cares if you're gonna watch or not).



Since: Jan 14, 2007
Posted on: November 27, 2011 5:59 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

i think its bogus that Bama gets another shot at LSU for the national championship. but logically, you can't put another team in the BCS game. the only good thing to come out of a rematch is that les miles will finally be able to step out of saban's shadow by putting it on him twice in 1 year and winning another championship. ironically, i predict after LSU beats Bama in new orleans. les will do just like saban did & leave for the NFL (chiefs, not dolphins.)



Since: Sep 10, 2006
Posted on: November 27, 2011 5:58 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

As I UGA grad and fan, I was one of the ones on here in 2007 arguing for the Dawgs--not necessarily saying we should've been in the NC game--but that we should be considered since the point of the BCS is to bring together the two best teams. That year, LSU, UGA, and Tennessee all finished with 6-2 conference records...a 3-way tie. An accident of geography shouldn't, in my opinion, have disqualified Georgia from the mix. I must be consistent, however. I loathe "championship" games. That year, who's to say which was best with three teams with identical records? But.... this season, LSU should not have to play our guys this Saturday. The Tigers have finished their schedule with the best conference record and should be SEC champions--already. A title game is only useful if two teams have the same mark and did not play each other during the regular season. I realize the revenue raised makes going back an impossiblity. Just my two cents. But yes, I think Alabama should absolutely be considered, the conference runner-up notwithstanding, just as UGA should have not have been ruled out four years ago.



Since: Sep 4, 2010
Posted on: November 27, 2011 5:46 pm
 

BCS projections, Nov. 19, little movement

Who would you put over Bama? An Okie State team that lost to a 28 point underdog (assuming they beat Oklahoma)?  A Va Tech team that if they win the ACC, will have beaten Clemson which the 5th best team in the SEC (South Carolina) just destroyed?  A Stanford team that certainly had a good year, but would like like they were running in slow motion vs. LSU, and also got hammered by an Oregon team that LSU handled easily?  If no Bama, who?



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