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Blog Entry

What will it take?

Posted on: December 4, 2011 10:09 am
Edited on: December 4, 2011 12:43 pm
 
UPDATE: The coaches poll point totals at the top have been revealed.  Oklahoma State pulled to within 32 points of Alabama.  As you can probably deduce if you read the bit below, that's not good news for the Cowboys.

OSU will now need to pass Alabama in the Harris poll and lead by at least five points to finish No. 2 overall in the BCS.  That seems unlikley, with the way poll voters tend to group-think, but you never know with those wacky Harris folks. 

Also, even though it doesn't count, the AP poll has Alabama No. 2 as well, although by a closer margin than the coaches have.

TCU did get a little help in that the Frogs are ahead of Houston, Georgia and Oklahoma, but Clemson jumped them, so that hurts.  We haven't seen those point totals yet.  I will update the BCS ratings projections chart when we see the full poll.

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The media (in general, not everyone) seems to be throwing its weight behind the notion of moving Oklahoma State up to No. 2 and giving the Cowboys a shot at LSU instead of having a rematch Alabama.  This comes after they have spent the last two weeks making it very clear that the only worthy opponent for LSU was, in fact, the Tide.

I don't have a vote, but I can tell you what the people who do will have to do to make that happen.

Oklahoma State trailed Alabama by 342 points in the Harris poll and 166 in the coaches' poll.  With the current computer projections, the Cowboys would have to be the mathematical equivalent of 28 points behind in Harris and 15 back in the coaches' poll.  A little of that ground gets made up with the natural fall of Virginia Tech in the polls, but that's still an enormous gap to make up.  Voters would simply have to decide they don't want a rematch and move OSU up, not only past Alabama on some ballots, but Stanford also, which started the week ahead of the Cowboys in both polls.  We'll have a much better idea when the coaches' poll is released in a few hours.

For some perspective, the only other time something like this happened was in 2006, when the voters moved up Florida past Michigan to avoid a rematch after the Gators won the SEC title on the final day of the season.  That year, Florida entered that last week trailing the Wolverines by only 86 points in the Harris poll and just 40 in the coaches' poll.

TCU has to get to 16 to earn an automatic spot in the BCS.  Again, I don't like the way the numbers are shaking out for TCU.  It doesn't look like the Frogs will make up much ground at all in the computers.  Going into this week, TCU was No. 17 in each poll, right behind Michigan, but the gap in the point totals was huge -- more than double the number of voters in each poll.  That's like being two spots in the rankings behind instead of one.  It also means that the teams that lost ahead of them in the polls --  Georgia, Michigan State, Oklahoma and Houston -- may slot into that gap between them and the Wolverines. 

TCU will probably need at least three of those teams to fall behind them in both polls to have a decent chance to get to 16th overall.  The Frogs also have to watch their backs and hope Baylor and Clemson don't leap(horned)frog them.  Michigan State (close loss) and Houston (high ranking to begin with and better record) have the best chance of staying ahead of TCU.


Comments

Since: Nov 26, 2007
Posted on: December 6, 2011 5:36 pm
 

What will it take?

What will it take? Let me make a couple of suggestions  and dont think I am trying to be a smart ass Alabama fan. No I am just an old 66 year old life time Alabama fan that knows a heck of a lot about Football and how things are done part of my resume is years of Coaching. 1. Schedule an SEC Team for one of one of your non conference games. 2. Start Right now Learning to play Defence you will need it 3. stop whining and Recruit better players to play Defence you have a good offence.


PS I do not who form Oklahoma wrote it or even if it even came from there But the only toothless SOB I have seen at a game was me but the Veterans Administration had to operate on my gums 14 times and took out part of my jaw bone that was dead. But they were able to fit me with more than one tooth You See I am a Disabled veteran lets not critize people about their teeth until we know THANK YOU SFC RETIRED JOHN WAID 



Since: Dec 7, 2009
Posted on: December 4, 2011 10:54 pm
 

What will it take?

boogiebassman, i think justlance knows as well as you do that the best iowa state could have dreamed of in the sec is to beat ole miss, kentucky and just maybe tennessee, though i doubt they could win a single game. in addtion, they would be so beat up that they might not win the out of conference ether. isu goes 3 & 9 in sec is my best guess. thats just in a good year for them and a bad one for the sec, like this year. i think justlance is just trying to diminish the perception of the sec like all his hater compatriots on these boards.



Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 10:12 pm
 

What will it take?

Justlance23osu,

You think Iowa State would be 9-3 in the SEC?  Really?  What makes you think so.  Was it that great 1 point Iowa State victory over that powerhouse Northern Iowa?  Maybe it was their 4 point win over a 5-7 Connecticut squad.  Or perhaps that great 3 point victory over a 2-10 Kansas team? 

Look, I understand rooting for a particular team but Iowa State is an average team at best. There is no way on this planet that they would be above .500 in the SEC if they were there. 



Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 10:07 pm
 

What will it take?

Hmm, you might have something there...NOT!!! I could say the same thing about the LSU/Bama game. Since both teams were blowing out most of the opponents until they played each other. Then to keep both teams in the mix they made a deal to pretend to play hard but no one would score a TD, the game would be settled by Field Goals. And in the final minutes it is decided that Bama will loose since everyone is on the LSU band wagon. But as a bonus, this would keep Bama in the mix and force a second SEC Championship game, not a National Championship game (because this is all this is a second SEC Championship game). But wait, let's throw a monkey wrench into the mix. Bama wins, but since they have lost to the team they just beat, they can't be crowned National Champs becasue their record would now be 1-1 against each other on the season. Now who gets the crown and why?



Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 7:02 pm
 

What will it take?

STANDFORD did NOT win their conference!!!!  Stanford Faltered in their BIG CHANCE!  and i don't recall Stanford playing under adverse conditions, having a bad call, and going all the way to double OT.


PLUS............

Look at SOS... OSU has the #5 SOS... they beat teams With the #2 SOS, #5 SOS, #8 SOS.... Iowa State lost 6 games... cause they played VERY VERY TOUGH TEAMS!!! (I think 5 of the losses are to TOP 20 teams)....  Iowa State would be 9-3 in the SEC!  That is NOT an exxageration.  You can't compare the two conferences.... 




Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 7:02 pm
 

What will it take?

STANDFORD did NOT win their conference!!!!  Stanford Faltered in their BIG CHANCE!  and i don't recall Stanford playing under adverse conditions, having a bad call, and going all the way to double OT.


PLUS............

Look at SOS... OSU has the #5 SOS... they beat teams With the #2 SOS, #5 SOS, #8 SOS.... Iowa State lost 6 games... cause they played VERY VERY TOUGH TEAMS!!! (I think 5 of the losses are to TOP 20 teams)....  Iowa State would be 9-3 in the SEC!  That is NOT an exxageration.  You can't compare the two conferences.... 




Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 6:41 pm
 

What will it take?

You have very interesting points but the one point that I have to say is that there has never been a college football champion which lost to a sub .500 school.  I understand that it was a situational loss, but it still was a loss to a sub .500 team.  If thats the case then Stanford could be having the same argument, they only lost to Oregon.



Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 6:29 pm
 

ODDS --- so wrong again... don't sound so stupid

SO WRONG AGAIN!!

dude, the whole point of odds is to pick a likely winner. if most betters thought ok state would win they would be favored. in all likelyhood bama will be favored over lsu, how much more so over ok state, i expect alabama would be 1O point favorites over ok state easy.

The ODDS are set to get the PUBLIC to vote half and half... thats how VEGAS makes money, by even betting... they rake juice no matter which way. 

Teams are FAVORED based on how they think the PUBLIC sees the game.  That's why MANY TIMES you will have a higher ranked team as the underdog... vegas knows what will happen!!

If the odds reflected the chances, everyone would just bet the moneyline everytime and take the SURE WIN!!  I mean, come on, if you KNOW that BAMA is going to beat okstate... you would mortgage the house even if you had to lay 5 to 1 odds.... risk 50,000 to win a GUARANTEED 10,000... right?!??!?!



Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 6:20 pm
 

What will it take?

Just a few more things:

#1) I am surprised that more people don't compare it to the NFL... AFC vs. NFC... no matter which two teams are best, there is one winner from each side for the Supebowl.

#2) Iowa State game should have been postponed... they are kids... they were in shock.... hard to play a football game like that

#3) Watch the replay... filed goal was GOOD!  No overtime... undefeated season.... no debate

#4) A loss is a loss.... any betters out there?  Upsets occur all the time.  Alabama played bad against LSU, right??? otherwise they wouldn't "Deserve another shot"  ... okstate played their poor game under bad circumstances, on the road, bad call... it just happened to be Iowa State.

#5) The blind poll says a TON..... OSU beat TONS of good teams.  AND... they did it when those teams WERE ranked higher than now.  When teams get BEAT, they drop (and do into a funk usually).  Bama played 7 games against NOBODY!!!  How could they POSSIBLY have a bad loss???  They had a shot against a top team and they lost!!!  OSU has NOT LOST when they have a shot against a top team, just the bad luck i mentioned in #4... Bama could have just as easily lost under those circumstances.  So let OSU try against LSU since Bama tried and LOST!!!

I just don't get it... The defensive rankings arguments are pathetic... means NOTHING because they play 11 different teams.  They were not best in their conference ... not even their DIVISION!!!  They are comparable to the NFL Wild Card playing the Division champ... but that is NOT for the SuperBowl!!!  They should have let LSU and BAMA play for conf champ.. 

Didn't Texas A&M put up a bunch of points against a GREAT SEC TEAM... Arkansas.... Again, the defense crap should be a MUTE argument... let it GO!  PLUS, they SHOWED their defense when they needed to... it the title shot vs. OU!   Also... you are going to give up a lot of yards and points when you lead the nation in quickest touchdown drives.... 1minute 47seconds avg... and they scroed 7 touchdowns per game!  in LESS THAN 1 QTR!!!!  That means the other team is out there playing catch up for a long long time... and gets yards... so be it.

When teams needed to STEP UP and win the big game.... LSU did it... OSU did it... Bama didn't, Standford didn't, Oregon didn't....

SuperBowl Champs often have a hiccup during the season.... they lose a game they shouldn't... but win when they need to.  OSU DID IT!!! (Iowa State was a bad bad situation).  BAMA should have WON vs LSU if they wanted a title.... they DID NOT!  That was their AFC TITLE GAME to get to the SuperBowl.  Season over.  OSU had their title game vs. OU.... NOW ITS TIME FOR THEIR SUPER BOWL vs. LSU!!!

Please computers
Please voters
Please all things that can make this happen. 
The Iowa State situation should not control this... OkState deserves a TITLE SHOT!



Since: Dec 4, 2011
Posted on: December 4, 2011 6:01 pm
 

What will it take? SO WRONG

these comments all forget one thing as well... In the NFL, can Green Bay and New Orleans play for the SuperBowl title?? NO!! Even if the best two, it's AFC vs NFC for title. Two SEC teams should not play for title. Their season is done, LSU won. OSU is #2 and represents the "other" best conference. So SEC vs BIG 12 is logical. Our defenses are ranked low because we play all of the TOP offenses. Defensive "rank" means nothing!! It's not even comparable!! Each conference is different! You don't win the conference, u don't play the SuperBowl!


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