Tag:North Carolina State
Posted on: March 10, 2012 8:49 am
Edited on: March 10, 2012 9:58 am
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Tough day to be a top seed

It was a tough day to be a top seed in your conference tournament.  Kansas, Temple, and Syracuse are among the top seeds that lost.  Nevada lost as well in the WAC, and probably won't make the tournament.  The Jayhawks fell off the top line of the bracket, replaced by Ohio State.  For now.

It is possible that we have a stolen bid in the Pac 12, as Cal lost.  The Bears were the one semi-decent at-large candidate.  I still have them in as of this morning.

Xavier won a big game against Dayton, which helped the Muskies solidify its spot in the field, and knocked the Flyers out of contention.

Ole Miss also won an elimination game against Tennessee.  The Rebels aren't necessarily safe though, but the Vols are definitely done.

At the bottom, Seton Hall and Miami are off the bracket, replaced by Arizona, the Pac-12 leader du jour, and NC State.  Miami lost to Florida State, while the Wolfpack advanced in the ACC tournament by beating Virginia.

Colorado State and Northwestern are still in the First Four.  The Rams lost to San Diego State last night.

Bids could be stolen today in Conference USA, and tomorrow in the A-10.  Marshall can secure a spot by winning at Memphis.  The A-10 final is sure to have either St. Bonaventure or Massachusetts, neither of which is at-large quality.

And I wouldn't entirely rule out Long Beach as an at-large team if it loses in the Big West final.  The 49ers played the toughest non-conference schedule of anyone, and beat Xavier and Pitt.  They were pretty competitive in losses to UNC, Kansas, San Diego State and Creighton.

Posted on: March 1, 2012 1:43 am
 

South Florida in, Miami out

Today's bracket reflects a switch in the Southern Florida representation in the field.  South Florida is in after beating Louisville, while Miami falls out after losing for the second time this season to NC State.

Northwestern almost got the big win tonight, but its comeback effort against Ohio State fell just short.  As a result, the Cats find themselves in the First Four in the current projection.

Colorado State and Cincinnati crept up a little after big wins.  The Rams knocked off UNLV at home.  The Rams always win at home.  It's away from home that they have problems.

The Bearcats steamrolled Marquette for its sixth top 50 RPI win and seventh against the top 100.  All those wins have come in conference play, where they are 11-6.

Dayton may have put the final nail in its coffin with a loss at Richmond.  Conference mate St. Joe's also hurt themselves with an overtime loss at St. Bonaventure.

Posted on: February 17, 2012 10:16 am
Edited on: February 17, 2012 10:53 am
 

Feb. 17 bracket

Today's bracket is posted.  There are virtually no changes at the top, thanks to Duke's comeback over North Carolina State last night.
There is some shuffling at the bottom though.  The First Four provides a post-season version of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.  Miami and Northwestern are bracketed for one game, and the Wolfpack faces Minnesota in the other.

There are still nine Big Ten teams in the bracket, but obviously, two are in serious trouble.

A second Pac 12 team (Arizona) is in for now and Washington is among the first four out.

Iowa State is out, not because they lost, but because the Cyclones haven't beaten anyone of any significance away from home.  That is an important thing for the committee.  It's also the problem for fellow conference mate Texas.

I will write in more detail about the bottom and off-the-bracket teams in Bubble Watch in a little bit.

However, here's a few helpful hints for those of you commenting on your teams.

Conference record is just a number.  Teams are evaluated on their entire seasons, not just the conference portion, which is only about 2/3 of a team's full schedule (and less than that with three weeks to go).  If all you have is conference record and/or position in the conference standings, you have nothing.

Head to head results are not decisive.  Teams are judged on their entire seasons, not one or two games.  Alabama fans know that well, after beating Georgia twice in the final week of the season last year, only to see the Bulldogs be selected ahead of them.

How teams finish the season has been deemphasized by the committee.  It has no bearing on how you do in the tournament.  VCU lost four of its last five last year.

Speaking of the Colonial league, people are asking if there is an at-large team in the trio atop the league (Drexel, VCU, George Mason).  They ask because the league usually has at-large quaity teams at the top of the league and has performed well in the tournament.  However, this is a down year.  Those three are rated betewen 80-100 in the RPI, or a good 50-60 spots below where the league's best team usually rates.    Those three teams have combined for three non-conference wins against top 100 teams.   There just isn't enough there to compete for at-large bids, so the Colonial will be a one-bid league.

I will be headed to the Murray State-St. Mary's game on Saturday, followed by the Michigan State-Purdue game on Sunday.  The SMC-Murray game is part of the bracket buster, which rarely, if ever, busts a bracket, but Murray can really help itself with a win over the Gaels in the event the Racers get upset in the OVC tournament and need an at-large big.

Another team that can boost its potential at-large hopes with a win is Long Beach, which travels to Creighton.  It would be their best win of the year.



Posted on: February 1, 2012 1:18 pm
 

Feb. 1 bracket

It's February, the home stretch of the season, and today's bracket features a lot of teams going in the wrong direction.

West Virginia lost three times since the last bracket was posted, and fell six spots this week.  The Mountaineers lost at St. John's and at home to suddenly resurgent Pittsburgh, sandwiched around that controversial loss at Syracuse.

Seton Hall is also fading fast.  The Hall got off to a great start this season, but now has lost five in a row.  To make matters worse, the opponents that mark their best wins - UConn, West Virginia and Dayton - are also struggling.

The Huskies have lost three i row and five of their last seven.  The addition of Ryan Boatright should help, once he works his way into form.

It's not all bad news for the Big East, along with Pitt, Notre Dame is coming on and has crawled onto the bracket in the PIGs.  The Irish have very little margin for error though.  Despite a nice collection of wins (Syracuse at home, and at Louisville, UConn and Seton Hall), they are only 7-8 vs the top 200 teams in the RPI, and that's a very negative indicator for tournament selection.

Northwestern is stll hanging on by a thread after a loss to Purdue at home this week (a much needed win for the Boilers, by the way).  The best thing working for the Cats is that Purdue is the lowest rated team to beat them this year, and they have a couple good wins, although one of them -- Seton Hall -- looks worse every day.

Honestly, the fact that Notre Dame and Northwestern, along with Colorado State and Oklahoma, which round out the First Four, are in a bracket is reason enough to go back to the 64-team field.

Florida made the biggest move up this week by filling in a couple of holes in their tournament profile.  Their sweep of the Mississippi schools, including a win at Ole Miss, gave them two more top 50 RPI wins (three total now) and their first win of any consequence away from home.

Dropping off the bracket this week were BYU, Texas, Marshall, UCF and NC State.  Coming on were Notre Dame, Colorado State, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Saint Louis.  All ten belong in the NIT.

Dayton almost fell off too after losing twice this week, including a real head-scratcher at home to RPI No. 263 Rhode Island.

Michigan State lost more than a game to Illinois last night.  The Spartans' heart and soul, Draymond Green, limped off the floor late with an apparent knee injury.  If that is serious and causes him to miss significant time, that will be a big blow to Michigan State's chances of a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

The highest rated team in the RPI not in my bracket is No. 47 Arkansas.  The Hogs are the ultimate Home Court Hero, with a 16-1 home record.  The Hogs are 16-0 in Fayetteville, and lost to Houston in Little Rock, which the NCAA considers a home game.  They are the only team in college basketball with at least a .500 record that has yet to win off its home floor.

The next bracket will be posted on Tuesday as we move to a twice-a-week schedule.
 
 
 
 
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